Comments on: Can Rick Boucher Kiss his Seat Goodbye?

By: Charlie Fugate

Charlie Fugate — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 20:42:19 +0000

The entrenched mentality of the old money in the District is what many have been fighting against for the past 20 plus years. There are three names to know if you want to get anywhere in Ninth District politics. Boucher, Jennings and Johnson. As to the first two, I have little in common with, but with Delegate Joe P. Johnson, any Republican running against him is committing political suicide. Simply put, Joe has been right on the issues most of the time. He’s more conservative than a lot of the lawmakers who call themselves Republican.

Lauren, I agree that Boucher needs to go, but realistically, we have to expect that the RNC and the RPV will not make this seat a priority until the last two months of the campaign when the polling data will make clear just where the Republican stands. I mean, Kevin Triplett, the most qualified of candidates I can remember since before 1994, campaigned hard and still was not able to break 40%, it just seems pretty darn unlikely that Boucher is in any remote danger. It would take the Perfect Storm to unseat Boucher. It would take a Wampler or possibly a Kilgore run to make this seat competitive.

By: Lauren

Lauren — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 16:16:31 +0000

But even Triplett wasn’t really well know before his campain. He had to move back home to run. What about the talk about a run by Terry Kilgore? There is going to be a backlash against Boucher next year, the question is how big will it be. To remove Boucher several things must happen. 1 There must be a well liked and well know republican leader running against him. This would inclued Kilgore, Wampler or Nutter. 2 I would guess there would have to be close to a million raise by the candidate. 3 Nation leaders would have to make it a priority.
Some of these things are already starting to happen, I hope they continue to and we can remove Mr. Boucher. Visit this website to learn more about where Boucher stands. http://www.boucherexposed.com

By: Charlie Fugate

Charlie Fugate — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 14:37:27 +0000

Craig,

You are spot on with your take. Triplett was the best candidate we’ve had in years down here. Boucher is in Cecil Roberts’ (UMWA chief down here) back pocket and the UMWA puts Boucher into real money. The constituent services his office provides is exactly as you say, Social Security checks that have suddenly become dislodged.

As a long time resident of the Ninth District, the only candidate the GOP could run and break 40% would be William Wampler, Jr. State Senator for portion of Washington County and Bristol. Wampler is not as conservative as some would like, but he is the GOP’s last hope against Boucher. If Wampler does not run, Boucher will have this seat until he retires.

The old money in Abingdon and the middle part of Washington County have a vested interest in keeping Rick in office. The lower part of the county is overwhelmingly Republican while the middle and upper end is Democrat. The opposite holds true for the Ninth as a whole. Republican candidates tend to fare better on the northeastern end of the District, while the Southwestern portion votes to overwhelmingly reelect. The UMWA carries the significant portion of that responsibility.

By: Craig Orndorff

Craig Orndorff — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 05:59:03 +0000

Interesting catch. However, Boucher is so entrenched, I’m not sure even this could dislodge him. In 2004 I did some volunteer work on behalf of Kevin Tripplett (probably one of the best candidates they’ve been able to field in that district, who couldn’t even break 40% in a year driven by social conservative turnout) with the UVA CRs down in that district. There were plenty of homes with a Bush-Cheney sign and a Boucher sing in the yard. Most observers in the region credit his crackerjack constituent services operation. Now, alot of this is based on “fixing” logjams in social security (i.e. taking credit when the check finally comes through even though it was just tied up). Now, certainly, this could very well draw the energy industry’s ire, which could led to a very well-funded challenger. However, it all depends on how hard they fight the Obama administration and if they fight them into 2010.